Patrick O’Donnell, Senior Investment Manager bij Aberdeen Standard Investments, kijkt vooruit naar de bijeenkomst van de ECB donderdag.
- De ECB kan donderdag toelichten hoe en wanneer ze haar obligatie-aankopen wil beëindigen, maar de eigenlijke aankondiging komt waarschijnlijk pas volgende maand.
- Mario Draghi kan zijn forward guidance licht bijstellen, zodat de financiële markten niet te snel een renteverhoging verwachten.
- Tijdens de Q&A zullen er veel vragen komen over Italië, maar het lijkt erop dat de ECB tegen eind dit jaar hoe dan ook de obligatie-aankopen zal stopzetten.
Aberdeen Standard Investments Senior Investment Manager Patrick O’Donnell comments:
“There’s plenty of attention on this meeting because the ECB has hinted that we could find out more about how and when they intend to end their QE programme. The most likely scenario is that they use this meeting to discuss tapering their programme to stop at the end of the year and then actually announce it at the July meeting. So we could get much of the detail this week and then the actual announcement next month.
“But whether it’s announced this month or next doesn’t make a huge amount of difference. Mario Draghi really has markets where he wants them as far as expectations of a rate hike are concerned. In order to keep them there, and avoid the risk that markets think a rate rise could come sooner, he might tweak the bank’s forward guidance.
“The most interesting part could be what is or isn’t said about Italy. This is likely to take up the vast majority of time in the Q&A but we are unlikely to hear anything ground breaking. At this stage there is very little that would prevent the ECB from running down asset purchases by the end of the year. And the timing of that magic first rate hike is likely to ebb and flow over the coming months based on the economic data and the various spats to come between Rome and Brussels. There’s not much Draghi can realistically say this week to stop any of that.”
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